Future of Travel (Part 5]: Cruises
As in the past articles, let’s dispense with what cruises will be like in the short term after the COVID-19 crisis dies down. Lots of articles have already been written about this; and everyone knows that - like airlines and hotels - cruise lines will be going out of their way to make guests feel safe and to create an acceptable sense of physical distancing. There will be health screenings, sanitizers everywhere, restrictions on older guests (medical report?), and lower passenger numbers. Keeping numbers down will put immediate pressure on price, but I am guessing cruise lines will opt to take a hit on profits rather than raise prices too high; just to get cruisers back.
Photo credit: Yacht Island Design
I do not agree with cynics, however, who say this is the end of cruising. After Norwalk Virus appeared they said the same thing; yet cruise lines made a few changes and cruising bounced back stronger than ever. In fact, the Norwalk Virus has given the cruise industry a head start over airlines and hotels; because they already have aggressive hygiene policies in place, and have carefully embedded this into their marketing for years. Coping with the latest concern means extra tweaks – in terms of hygiene protocols – but it may not be as massive an undertaking as for hotels and airlines.
That is not to say, however, that hygiene concerns and the ongoing need for creating a sense of social distancing won’t involve changes, some of which will be permanent.
Will cruising follow the pattern we predict for airline travel? While options for mass tourism (eg. the mega ships) may remain; my bet is most cruise lines will chase after the more lucrative luxury travel, which favours privacy, intimacy, and exclusivity. That equates to small ships. River cruising will continue to expand in popularity – the appeal of always being close to an airport for quick escape will become important. And small ocean ships will continue to be the areas of high growth. Don’t completely write off mega ships. There will still be a demand in the mass market; but even there, you will see relatively higher prices and permanent changes in passenger density.
The theme of these articles has been “necessity is the mother of invention.” This crisis will accelerate changes that were already happening. It will also force cruise ships to innovate in ways we cannot foresee. When movie-going was dying out in the 1970’s Hollywood turned to technology (CGI) to create new experiences. Star Wars, Jaws, Toy Story, etc. saved Hollywood. The same will happen with cruise ships – large and small. The large ships will become floating entertainment palaces. Small ships will offer even greater levels of personal service and unique shore experiences. Mid-luxury cruise lines and mid-size ships may disappear. The market will fragment into luxury and mass market.
One last innovation needs to be discussed; and there will be more on this in the next article on the Future of Tourism. Up until now cruise ships, particularly ocean-going, have had a bad record on sustainability and the environment. They are shameless polluters. Because they fly flags of convenience (register themselves in small countries with lax laws), they flout environmental and labour laws, as well as taxes. As cruising becomes more exclusive and more competitive, this will have to change. To expand into new, younger markets, cruise lines will clean up their act. Just as there will be higher expectations for onboard quality, so the new customer will demand sustainability and higher corporate values. As cruise lines re-invent themselves, they will compete to choose more interesting experiences, and this will be reflected in their choice of ports. Maybe we will see the end of ships overwhelming heritage cities like Venice, Barcelona, and St. Petersburg. As important as tourism is to local economies, it can also cause damage and create friction with local citizens. By choosing new ports and perhaps limiting visits, the cruise industry can better minimize the impact it has on popular towns and cities. Cruising has a significant impact on local economies. Despite the problems, most port cities will continue to welcome cruise ships. There is no reason cruising cannot evolve to have a neutral, or even positive, impact on the environment and the parts of the world it touches.
The Travel Group
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Future of Travel Series - Cruising.pdf | 363.45 KB |